Execution loopTicks every 0.75s inside the window
Price capAsk + 0.04, tick-aligned
Fill or killNo partial positions
Kill switchOne file, instant
Polymarket opens a new Bitcoin window every five minutes. Up or down against the opening price.
This bot ignores almost all of them. It moves in the final seconds, when the outcome is nearly settled and the order book is still a second behind.
You run it yourself. Your keys, your machine, your caps. Paper mode needs no wallet at all.
Will Bitcoin close this window at or above its opening price? Two outcomes, one dollar per winning share, ties go up.
Simple enough that thousands of people trade it by hand — and fast enough that almost nobody beats the clock.
By the time direction is obvious, the price already says so. Buying a likely winner at 0.90 earns four cents after fees.
One loss at that price erases nine wins. Most bots die here.
The Polymarket book trails spot by roughly one and a half seconds. In the last breath of a window that lag is measurable money.
The bot computes how far the current lead sits from being erased, in standard deviations of the remaining volatility, and crosses the spread only when that number is large and the price is still wrong.
Most windows produce no trade. The log records why: no liquidity on the winning side, price outside the band, volatility too thin to trust.
Refusals are the product. A bot that trades every window is a bot paying fees for the privilege of being average.
| Gate | Threshold | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Entry window | Final 8s | Outcome near-settled, book still stale |
| Flip safety | z ≥ 3.0 | ~0.13% chance the lead reverses |
| Edge after fee | ≥ 0.02 | Taker fee 0.07 × p × (1−p) per share |
| Price band | 0.75 – 0.95 | Coin flip below, no juice above |
| Probability cap | 0.97 | Real tails are fatter than the model's |
| Volatility floor | 1.5 bps | A dead tape must not fake certainty |
The account reads its real on-chain balance before every order and refuses to trade on a stale number. Each stake is reserved, so two windows cannot spend the same dollar.
Every order is logged with its price cap, its actual fill, and its latency — filled, killed, or rejected. Expected balance and chain balance reconcile continuously; money missing stops everything.
Clone, install, run. Paper mode is the default — no wallet, no funds, no keys.
The dashboard shows the live window, the countdown, the signal and the reason it passed.
Every evaluation is stored, traded or not — including the near misses that tell you where the money is.
Live is a separate, deliberate step behind your own keys, your own caps, your own kill switch.